Need of reinventing planning and analysis processes in view of colossal data and novel technology.

Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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Projections, theories, conclusions and research methodologies being put together, shaped over years, formulated over months, are susceptible of getting outdated even before getting published and usually starts losing significance by the time actually put into practice. Even moment after arriving at a conclusion, outcomes are getting overshadowed and gets diluted considering unavoidable quantum of intellectual insights, discussions, counterarguments and constructive criticism on subject which follows on multiple public forums, not to speak of colossal new raw data surfaced post publication which was never part of base data and assumptions in the first place and poised to lead outcome to a different conclusion. Even scientific theories, concepts and methods change over time or sometimes radically on a new discovery.

We need to acknowledge that data being an amorphous, colossal and dynamic entity and a foundational attribute as a common denominator across knowledge streams has unprecedented and overwhelming potential to disrupt edifice of accumulated knowledge. To give a perspective and to substantiate thoughts its noteworthy that as per Forbes 2018 report there are 2.5 quintillion bytes of data created each day and 90 percent of data was generated over just two years. Its nearly impossible for any individual or expert to process such flux of data in a limited time with exiting widespread tech-tools, where any random piece of newly generated data may be vital and not to be overlooked. We also need to acknowledge that most of existing workforce around the world is neither equipped to handle such amount of data nor skilled enough today to use exascale computing system which may arrive anytime soon. It’s difficult to come to terms to the fact that a substantial quantum of unfiltered near real-time data can supersede a legitimate factual outdated piece of information. There is also an urgent need to recognise the upcoming role of machine in data processing and experts should increasingly focus more on human aspects of planning and policy.

Learning, for individuals as well as community, is an enlightening journey from one conclusion followed by disruption leading to another conclusion and so on, that’s how we evolve, hence policies, governance and planning processes have to take cognizance of the ever emerging information and data set, quickly and constantly adapting to the new data inferences and insights and should mimic the dynamic attributes based on which they are drafted and implemented.

It also leads to the realisation that traditional predefined data sets and tools to analyse and interpret data, including popular methodology of research and planning are somewhat overrated and calls for a new renaissance.

Author- Anoop Jha

Projection for long range development vision- What are the limitations?

 Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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One of the inherent limiting factor of long range development vision, especially City or Metropolitan Development plan is "Projection". While multiple alternate growth scenarios - like in case of population projections- are assesses including business as usual, exponential case scenario etc. through a scientific, statistical and pragmatic approach, but soon afterwards while selecting the optimal case scenario out of handful of alternatives, science tends to get replaced by somewhat abstract sweeping logic and individual or herd preferences and usually a "bullish scenario" is selected unanimously, because "vision" is perceived to be bright and luminescent,  and rest other scenarios are sidelined.

Now very much convinced with the assumptions and choice of decision, projected numbers (say derived future population) assume concrete significance and starts dictating physical planning and form of city (like BUA, FAR, PCU), but in actuality such numbers (say projected population) may or may not be achieved or may exceed projected numbers, only to be evident half a decade later or so. Over stressed city infrastructure and ghost cities both are  results of over reliance on single final future scenario and discarding equally valid other possible scenarios.

It's worth acknowledging that a single market ready technological advancement in span of 3 to 5 years, has potential to disrupt 30 odd year vision plan just like that.

Vision and long range planning should be as agile, accomodative and resilient as possible; to be revisited, reinvented and reconfigured in short intermediate spans and it should also have a monitoring dashboard mechanism with a continuous feedback loop.  Additionally, vision document must elaborate and articulate multiple scenarios, their impacts and concrete response measures, plan-B, Plan-C and so on.

Author: Anoop Jha

Human limitation of multi criteria assessment!

Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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Computers seem to be more reliable and accurate in running algorithm and doing assessment compared to human for the reason that computers are programmed to process  numerous "if this"-"then that"  scenarios, while human being have this innate limitation in processing multiple criteria and  "what if" Scenarios; a dozen criteria and handful of scenarios and most feel this is all that is there which was needed. Until computers completely master the art of attribute selection and scenario building themselves and learn to take judgmental decision on their own, their assessment and outcome shall also be limited as they are still being programmed by very human being having prejudice and limitations of many kinds.

To illustrate, while deliberating with individual client or a family to design their dream home, how many architects  for instance consider the sun sign traits of client, inquire about their past, their medical history, their travel history, their bucket list, their life philosophy, their spiritual inclination, musical preferences, cultural orientation, their sensitivity towards light, their daily routine, sleeping pattern, their food habit, their environmental commitments and children's future aspirations, child's favorite game and comic character, their idea of space and scale  etc. Unfortunately most of these variables are purposefully or by conditioning or out of hesitation being missed out during client's need assessment, but all or any of these can add immense value to architectural design process and outcome. If architects won't ask, client won't tell, then without considering such variables which are integral to one's life and true personality, how will architects  produce truly personalised, holistic and humane design for example.

Likewise, when government is collecting census data or demographic profile about individuals or households, they really don't find it worthwhile to ask about individual's hobbies, their skill sets, their unsettled and future liabilities of various kinds, health issues they are struggling with, their affiliations, what they are engaged in post retirement, areas in which they would like to volunteer given a chance, etc. which are equally tangible and crucial pieces of information and valid criteria of assessment, having potential to create a better society and conditions.

Capability to acknowledge, consider and process multitude of criteria and endless possible scenarios is what differentiates one individual from another, one organization from other, one city administration from other, one governance scheme from other and sometimes may even one nation from another.

Author: Anoop Jha

#Modeling  #financialmodeling #data #assessment  #analysis #algorithm #architecture #architect #governance #administration #nationbuilding #census #demography #survey #urbanplanning

What with data protection and privacy in smart city debate?

Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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DataProtection and Privacy must be assessed without fixating on SmartCity.

Data vulnerability and privacy is a subject that goes beyond surveillance and facialrecognition and many a times has nothing to do with smart city, as people are usually no less vulnerable even outside smart city jurisdictions.

To give this a perspective, from the moment a child is born they tend to become a data point for someone or other, sometimes with or without parental consent depending on which part of world they are in. From their medical test report, to vaccination record, to genetic database, to TV shows they watch, to all the schools they go to or not, even those drop out from school become data points for some research or statistics. Strange enough this is achieved without children necessarily requiring to own a phone.

Collecting data from adults is far easier. Child again become a goldmine of data as they become adult, the moment they are obliged to own a phone without which it may be impossible to access even many day to day or other services in almost every part of world, or whether they own phone by choice. Interestingly our interaction, inaction and rejection (e.g. with website) all becomes equally valid data element for someone out there. 

Hundreds of access and tracking permissions that we give to random sites and apps including saving passwords and what not, all the cookies sitting in our phones and laptops, altogether with our linked identity, possibly makes us more vulnerable sitting at home compared to being out there in street facing surveillance cameras and street sensors.

We entrust and never usually question scores of institutions who take our important data and identity information, including banks, e-commerce, phone manufacturers, assuming they will protect it, but use of data by #governments and entities for smart city purpose remains a much debatable subject. Fear surrounding data and privacy is real and natural, as threats are also real and stakes are high. It is seen that governments and knowledge institutions across the world are increasingly getting aware of this fact and are relentlessly working on safeguarding data of their citizens in smart cities, forming policies, laws and contracts. They are also seen transferring knowledge to other municipalities equipping them for future smart cities. What is also required is national, regional and global cooperation and common framework of data privacy and ethics. Bringing all possible stakeholders of smart cities in the common wider net of law is also important as you never know who is teaching their machines what bias language.

The focus has to be on how to #anonymize and #safeguard data within the network and hierarchy of stakeholders.

Author: Anoop Jha

#data #egovernance #governance #policy #machinelearning #ml #iot #mobility #AR #VR #urbanmanagement #Rotterdam #Delft #Eindoven #Amsterdam #Utretch #Hague #Netherlands 

Must watch Google Trend - India online search trend in last 4 crucial hours of demonetisation!

Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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Interest over time ......while US election results are also awaited!!

Urban development is contagious, keep an eye and let it spread!

One gear triggers other and whole machine gets activated.

Process of urban development is spontaneous, sometimes sluggish sometimes fast but always forward looking, if left on its own it will automatically morph and mutate and expand, to cater, to accommodate, by utilizing whatever little or more they have, by seeking and digging what and when they require. And we are not talking about another Squatter!

Left on its own city might sustain and prosper or it might entangle and be a mess, but it will grow for sure, that’s how we have made our journey from jungle to habitat spanning centuries. We need planning upfront today different from mud house age since our needs have changed and so the externalities, otherwise natural mutation of habitat or city should technically be sustainable a phenomenon.

Development has inertia of growth inbuilt we just don’t know in which direction, though we really don’t have to push is so hard we have to just push it to keep it rolling and have to give it a logical direction.

Upfront capital being a key constraint in urban development sector, an example of mutating self-sustaining habitat can be an additive model of shelter where you give only that much of infrastructure which is basic but with provision of ample spatial flexibility and assistance at disposal, and letting them build further on their own, based on their capacities, choices and needs. Creating some rules to play with and giving them an assistive hand when and where they require.

A favorable environment, assistive and vigil governance and a scientific approach are what we need to see this natural development phenomenon unfold and sustain.

An autonomous "data system" inspired by "life system" would look something like this-

Only if you could read between the megabytes!

We are probably living in the best times of history when it comes to freedom of knowledge. In very near future a storm of data is going to overtake individual supremacy and idiosyncrasies and going to demolish hard earned monopoly of handful of experts. Knowledge in form of data was never in such an abundance and never so easily accessible. Lets make use of it in best way possible.

A DATA SYSTEM INSPIRED BY LIFE SYSTEM  
- Has to be replicable  
- Has to be a Non
- Linear System  
- Has to be a Non-coplaner System  
- With a Beginning and End  
- Should mimic external environment without any  actual physical threat  
- Pyramid as building block with vital information  at its Tip and Archive at its base  
- Archive plane further arranged in segments of  24 or 54  
- Information tissue cubes made of 6 Pyramids  joined at Tip  
- Volume of Tissue cube arranged in 3d Grid  
- Vital information distributed in space  
- An auto learning system  
- Data mining with sixth sense filtering  
- With Functionally adapted parts  - Varying activity intensity  
- Available on Demand  - Customisable to Client's need without  intervention  
- Waste generation (junk) to maintain the  envisaged size of system  
- Idle period to revive and conserve energy  
- Alerts and Filters are key to system's tangible  success
- A mirror backup data-set-" Advantage over living  system"

Future of Data mining and Data analysis is here!

Author Brief: Anoop Jha is an Urban and regional Planner with a keen interest in exploring possible role of new Data and Technology in city, social, and economic planning and having vision to take planning to whole new level through integration of Policy, innovation and ever-growing knowledge base of world.

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