Need of reinventing planning and analysis processes in view of colossal data and novel technology.

Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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Projections, theories, conclusions and research methodologies being put together, shaped over years, formulated over months, are susceptible of getting outdated even before getting published and usually starts losing significance by the time actually put into practice. Even moment after arriving at a conclusion, outcomes are getting overshadowed and gets diluted considering unavoidable quantum of intellectual insights, discussions, counterarguments and constructive criticism on subject which follows on multiple public forums, not to speak of colossal new raw data surfaced post publication which was never part of base data and assumptions in the first place and poised to lead outcome to a different conclusion. Even scientific theories, concepts and methods change over time or sometimes radically on a new discovery.

We need to acknowledge that data being an amorphous, colossal and dynamic entity and a foundational attribute as a common denominator across knowledge streams has unprecedented and overwhelming potential to disrupt edifice of accumulated knowledge. To give a perspective and to substantiate thoughts its noteworthy that as per Forbes 2018 report there are 2.5 quintillion bytes of data created each day and 90 percent of data was generated over just two years. Its nearly impossible for any individual or expert to process such flux of data in a limited time with exiting widespread tech-tools, where any random piece of newly generated data may be vital and not to be overlooked. We also need to acknowledge that most of existing workforce around the world is neither equipped to handle such amount of data nor skilled enough today to use exascale computing system which may arrive anytime soon. It’s difficult to come to terms to the fact that a substantial quantum of unfiltered near real-time data can supersede a legitimate factual outdated piece of information. There is also an urgent need to recognise the upcoming role of machine in data processing and experts should increasingly focus more on human aspects of planning and policy.

Learning, for individuals as well as community, is an enlightening journey from one conclusion followed by disruption leading to another conclusion and so on, that’s how we evolve, hence policies, governance and planning processes have to take cognizance of the ever emerging information and data set, quickly and constantly adapting to the new data inferences and insights and should mimic the dynamic attributes based on which they are drafted and implemented.

It also leads to the realisation that traditional predefined data sets and tools to analyse and interpret data, including popular methodology of research and planning are somewhat overrated and calls for a new renaissance.

Author- Anoop Jha

Projection for long range development vision- What are the limitations?

 Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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One of the inherent limiting factor of long range development vision, especially City or Metropolitan Development plan is "Projection". While multiple alternate growth scenarios - like in case of population projections- are assesses including business as usual, exponential case scenario etc. through a scientific, statistical and pragmatic approach, but soon afterwards while selecting the optimal case scenario out of handful of alternatives, science tends to get replaced by somewhat abstract sweeping logic and individual or herd preferences and usually a "bullish scenario" is selected unanimously, because "vision" is perceived to be bright and luminescent,  and rest other scenarios are sidelined.

Now very much convinced with the assumptions and choice of decision, projected numbers (say derived future population) assume concrete significance and starts dictating physical planning and form of city (like BUA, FAR, PCU), but in actuality such numbers (say projected population) may or may not be achieved or may exceed projected numbers, only to be evident half a decade later or so. Over stressed city infrastructure and ghost cities both are  results of over reliance on single final future scenario and discarding equally valid other possible scenarios.

It's worth acknowledging that a single market ready technological advancement in span of 3 to 5 years, has potential to disrupt 30 odd year vision plan just like that.

Vision and long range planning should be as agile, accomodative and resilient as possible; to be revisited, reinvented and reconfigured in short intermediate spans and it should also have a monitoring dashboard mechanism with a continuous feedback loop.  Additionally, vision document must elaborate and articulate multiple scenarios, their impacts and concrete response measures, plan-B, Plan-C and so on.

Author: Anoop Jha

What it would mean to live in a Smart City 2035, for instance?

Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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Thinking of a future time when basic efficiency has already been achieved through several rounds of smart interventions.   

So, what comes to mind, when one thinks of living in a true smart city on a future time, is possibly the ease, efficiency, on-demand, quality life, that is there for inhabitants; while for institutions of all kinds, both public and private, it may mean better information, management and rate of return. 

Will it be more flat or more hierarchical? Top down or bottom-up? Uniform or asymmetric? Need to deliberate more on “what would be?” Vs “what should be?”

Are there any trade-offs? Possibly yes, as it may have to do with “choices” Vs “(new) obligations”, “ease” Vs “dependency”, “security” Vs “infringement”, “carefree” Vs “competency”, “fragile” vs “fittest”; where each trade-off requires deep inspection, logical adjustment and subtle handling.   

Thinking of belongingness; does that mean “those inside the smart city” Vs “those outside”, “those deserving to be inside” Vs “those better left outside”? Further to brainstorm, how do we assure its equitable and widely acceptable. 

Will it reinstate the concept and need of city boundary, may be virtual geofencing, like a regression in time; boundary which took past several decades to get blurred on the contrary. 

Subject like this which touches so many lives including several facets of life, requires a visionary introspection, lengthy collaborative thinking and sympathetic approach; a true smart city cannot simply be achieved through big data, disruptive technology and linear institutional thinking. 

There seems to be a lot of room for debate, before we conclude on idea of smart city.  

Author: Anoop Jha

#smartcity  #urbanmanagement #urbanplanning #systemthinking #institution #smartsolutions #futuretech #design #future #technology #equility #sustainability #resilience #Rotterdam #bigdata #community #Netherlands #India #Delhi #iot #AI #5G #sensorfusion #connectedinfrastructure #autonomus #machinelearning

Not anytime sooner AI or ChatGPT will surpass human intelligence or completely fulfil human desire for excellence.

Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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As the saying goes - there are finer fishes in the ocean then ever been caught. Likewise, there is way too much human experiences than ever been documented, way too much knowledge then ever been published, countless layers of emotions then ever been fathomed. Worth mentioning, as above knowledge and experiences never made their way to big data with which machines are being trained in principle.

Machine intelligence may amuse one, may even trick one, for a moment or two for sure, may serve the worldly purpose to much extent as well, but not going to surpass human intelligence (not in terms of weather prediction) and instinct any time sooner, neither fulfil their quest and expectations. Needs of human intellect is more than ever possibly to be fulfilled by machine or AI, at least not in near term.

History is dotted with precedents. Take a look at art for instance, photography and digital media were perceived to have immense disruptive potential, and they actually disrupted creativity and aesthetics, but never could kill art, rather made art more stronger. Take example of internet, it had potential to disrupt knowledge and it did, but could never uproot academia, rather it strengthened it. Take for instance cars, there was technically no going back to non-motorised vehicle, but bicycle prevailed and rather going stronger. When there came polyester, there was no going back to handloom, but it left people longing even more for cotton. Likewise the advent of genetically modified food and reactionary human quest for organic produce. And robots that could never render manpower obsolete.

As human needs and reactions to external events are way complex, hence their self organising tendency around any new disruption is also evident. Human being prefer to dwell at the borderline of existence, to have a chance to immerse oneself in experience in one instance (sometimes driven by technology) and withdraw in private seclusion in next moment. Essentially delocalised and never to be confined in one orbit.

Human quest remains unchallenged, as there is no technology which can quench their thirst, their quest for excellence, and search for newness. The best thing one can do in such times of technological flux is to embrace the change and keep calm!

Author: Anoop Jha

#technology #ChatGPT #AI #ML #bigdata #machinelearning #futuretech #disruption #smartcity #urbanplanner #architect #Rotterdam #Hague #Eindhoven #Utrecht #Amsterdam #Netherlands

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