How reliable are socio-economic future projections?

By - Anoop Jha

There are always some uncertainties of projections in planning process.

While preparing vision and development plans, planners heavily depends on socio-economic projections short to medium and long term. Based on such projections development plans are proposed for a region or a city, both strategic as well as physical plan. It is an effort to look into the future and plan according to that. For regional vision plan these projections are based on analyzing voluminous amount of social and economic data of the region collected over long period time and referring to survey data archive, which shed some light on decades of  growth pattern of the region. For urban and regional projects, projections are made based on samples collected over relatively shorter period of time.

There are number of theories, school of thoughts, methods and simulation tools which have evolved in course of time for the socio economic projection. Data gathering process are becoming more and more efficient, Simulation tools are getting faster and efficient as well capable of handling large amount of data in no time, Still there is an uncertainty of projections in current planning projections. Future Projections are as accurate and reliable as its tools are i.e. gathered data, sample questionnaires, size of sample, hetroginicity of sample, inclusiveness of sample, simulation tools- software & Computers,  apart from that there are  other factors like willingness and efficiency of of consultants/ surveying agencies responsible for the outcome, human error, time constraint, political influence. Under so many of environmental influences future projections are bound to be hazy, hence there should be certain provisions of  compensatory flexibility both in terms of tangible and intangible inputs in the planning model, especially in physical planning and development plans, to make plans as realistic and as accommodative and future proof as possible.

Intercity travel congestion - Need for a new regional planning approach

Too much focus on urban planning and too little regional planning

Intercity Transport

Regional Development Plans in terms of intercity mobility plan are long term planning process which are primarily Policy level decisions and most of the time such projects remain stagnant at strategic level. Very few of these projects gets implemented in time while situation keep becoming increasingly critical, for example- intercity traffic congestion.

Most of the proposed projects are capital intensive and hence undergo long review process and witness relatively less thrust from political arena, while other mounting  large numbers of smaller projects at urban level demands immediate attention at the same time and witness  more political willingness, due to relatively shorter implementation period and medium to small  investment in comparison to regional development project, particularly in Transport sector. 

At national and regional scale government has so many pressing priorities in terms of public welfare and social infrastructure like, health, education, water and sanitation etc. that they tend to push  back some elements of physical infrastructure projects like upgradation, widening of existing intercity roads, crucial regional transport junctions, new bypasses, and expressways link roads.  In regional transport plan another reason of choked intercity transport corridors and delayed project implementation is that regional plan are placed lower in terms of prioritized projects, because their immediate priorities are close to core of the city and as we go further from center of the city nature of project starts changing from urban to regional, and projects in regional category are part of later phases of the projects and mostly strategic in nature with some physical planning proposals. 

Need is to identify and prepare  exhaustive list of planning indexes like, demography, revenue, technology,  covering large spectrum of subjects and society, and based on those index a blanket matrix should be created to arrive at more realistic priority list of project.

By - Anoop Jha

Designing Golf Course – Creative side of sports

By - Anoop Jha

Why designing Golf Course is so different from most of other sports

Golf is one of the fastest growing popular outdoor sports in the world. It is quite fascinating and very different from other sports in terms of its playfield design and layout in the midst of lush undulating surrounding; it has a touch of natural ecology with varying texture of surface made of grass, sand and water, with carefully placed and maintained vegetation. Though it is a laborious game but it is quite rejuvenating in terms of environment.

Designing a Golf course is very different from designing fields and courts for other sports like, football field, Race track, tennis, badminton, swimming pool etc. because of scope for flexibility and creativity it provides in terms of planning and design elements for localised treatment while staying within the prescribed standards. Most of the other sports have a very standardized and rigid layout for their field and court, and provides very little flexibility and scope for creativity in design, except envelop i.e. indoor and outdoor stadium buildings / envelop. Golf course provides a much wider scope for creativity which is specific to physiography and profile of site.  

Layout Design Guidelines

Par - 3 :  250 yards [230 M] & below

Par - 4 :  251 to 450 yards [410 M]

Par - 5 :  451 to 690 yards [630 M]

Par - 6 :  691 yards [632 M] or more

Typical elements of a hole on a golf course

1.   Teeing ground

2.   Water hazard

3.   Rough

4.   Out of bounds

5.   Sand bunker

6.   Water hazard

7.   Fairway

8.   Putting green

9.   Flagstick

10. Hole

Integrated Infrastructure for Sustainable Urban Planning

By - Anoop Jha

Integrated infrastructure is the key to sustainable infrastructure planning. Planning at Urban or Township scale involves an intricate system of utility infrastructure like power, water, sewage, drainage, HVAC. All these utilities and services need to co-exist together while every system plays a crucial role in proper function of city as a whole. 

Integrated decentralization for planning

Integration and decentralization both have their own advantages. Integration has some fundamental befits like - optimized resource, saved time, centralized supervisory and partial control, possibility of automation, less manpower requirement, wastage control, resource efficiency etc. while decentralization presents its own set of benefits like- better management and control, output efficiency, better understanding of the system, better control, modular unitisation, replication, last mile value addition etc. but for a sustainable urban infrastructure planning a hybrid these two systems should be used which we can call “Integrated decentralization”. It would advantages both the systems fused together for best results and optimization.  

Perception of space – a function (f) of Space

Regional and Locational shift in Perception of space

Space function and origin

Perception of space in terms of physical location of observer plays a crucial part in understanding planning of urban built form and is a vital part of Urban Planning, but the roots of such perception emerges from regional level. It is also related to conditioning, space perceived by residents of mountainous, hilly and undulating terrain are totally different from space perceived by person living in  flat terrain. Similarly space recognized by a person who spent most of his life in sprawling rural setting  can be totally different than a person living in an urban setting, It can be either” a not so pleasant shock” or “a surprise” or “an aspiration” for an individual while changing their location from hills to plain or rural to urban or vice versa. Usually what happens is that people constantly living in mountainous and hilly terrain witness only finite view due to restrained field of view by mountains,  hills and valleys, and when they occasionally come to plain and see that there is no limitation on the field of view, when they realize that they can see upto the horizon, it’s a pleasant shock to them.

Similarly when a resident of sprawling plain terrain goes for a vacation to some hill station or otherwise, they find it as a one of the finest moments of their life, primarily because of limited and ever changing field of view provided by hilly city,  they have a totally different experience of space that is finite which they have never experienced in life living in plains. Similarly a person living in a rural setting with sprawling, sparse and low-rise settlement when encounter with a city with medium to high-rise and dense built form and architecture, its not the rush of city that strikes him most, it’s the “Built Form” that strikes him dumb, he curiously looks out of the window of train and bus and cab, to see the buildings touching the sky, public spaces formed and enclosed by surrounding buildings. Suddenly he finds himself enclosed and restrained in the built form of the city which provides finite field of view with claustrophobic environment which is a paradigm shift in perception from the earlier experienced freedom of unlimited perceived space of rural setting.