Projection for long range development vision- What are the limitations?

 Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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One of the inherent limiting factor of long range development vision, especially City or Metropolitan Development plan is "Projection". While multiple alternate growth scenarios - like in case of population projections- are assesses including business as usual, exponential case scenario etc. through a scientific, statistical and pragmatic approach, but soon afterwards while selecting the optimal case scenario out of handful of alternatives, science tends to get replaced by somewhat abstract sweeping logic and individual or herd preferences and usually a "bullish scenario" is selected unanimously, because "vision" is perceived to be bright and luminescent,  and rest other scenarios are sidelined.

Now very much convinced with the assumptions and choice of decision, projected numbers (say derived future population) assume concrete significance and starts dictating physical planning and form of city (like BUA, FAR, PCU), but in actuality such numbers (say projected population) may or may not be achieved or may exceed projected numbers, only to be evident half a decade later or so. Over stressed city infrastructure and ghost cities both are  results of over reliance on single final future scenario and discarding equally valid other possible scenarios.

It's worth acknowledging that a single market ready technological advancement in span of 3 to 5 years, has potential to disrupt 30 odd year vision plan just like that.

Vision and long range planning should be as agile, accomodative and resilient as possible; to be revisited, reinvented and reconfigured in short intermediate spans and it should also have a monitoring dashboard mechanism with a continuous feedback loop.  Additionally, vision document must elaborate and articulate multiple scenarios, their impacts and concrete response measures, plan-B, Plan-C and so on.

Author: Anoop Jha

Statistical bias and insufficiency!

Please visit my web page "Urban Tenets" at https://urbantenets.nl/

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The problem with statistics other than it's 1) susceptibility to misinterpretation and 2) confirmation bias is that 3) the moment you try to universalise statistical outcome, it gets diluted and loses its granularity and significance and 4) if you hardly get any robust and substantiated temporal data of a specific region or set of subjects (with its innate challenges, strengths, context and conditions) to support your argument it anyway still remains too remote, meagre or ephemeral to be of any material significance to the other three fourth part of world.

e.g., wrt above numbers

1) #Commercial / #political interest statistics

2) #Agenda / #ideological driven statistics

3) encompassing subjects like #poverty #urbanisation

4) statistics wrt #ecology, #heritage, #bicycleusage

If not true for all sectors, segments or subjects; same has been recurring  theme and daunting issue with majority instances of statistical interpretation/ outcome

Statistics to be presented with a note of caution and to be received with a dash of scepticism.

Author: Anoop Jha

#Statistics  #modeling #projection #urbanplanning #governance #commerce

Scaling of opportunities, a bigger challenge than scaling up urban infrastructure!

Tackling immediate soft urban challenges through resource prioritization!

Infrastructure expansion is where the money and interest is and is a never ending process as well, so it will keep scaling up in background anyway and will be taken care of diligently, with or without much intervention. Public sector has more of a catalytic and mentoring role to play in that direction. Skill is what we need to focus on today.

Like they say “Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day, teach him how to catch a fish and he will eat for his lifetime”.  Scaled opportunity is what an urban dweller needs irrespective of which Socio-economic strata they belong. More opportunity to masses means more involvement in the urban dynamics, and hence being more engaged in the process of building the very city which provided the new scale and dimensions of opportunities. Scaling of opportunity are less resource intensive and has higher ROR than scaling or urban infrastructure and might be more sustainable an approach!

Further scientific modelling and analysis will be required to validate and assert the idea.  

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Check out new Blog Page dedicated to World Education

Educ@ti.ON  - Rethinking Education for a "lightened up world"!! 

Click on image to go to page-

Visit Page at following Link: http://planningurbanoregional.blogspot.in/p/eduction.html

More Coming....

Next time you are bullied tell them you are on an exponential learning curve!

Is it "the right time" for education system to introspect on its evaluation and certification process?

You see, you have been bullied every now or than for apparently no good reasons especially in your early growth phase as you can recall from your childhood memories and being bullied even today while you undertake every new challenge. Take a pause and rewind, being bullied for not performing as well as the next bright child in your class or neighborhood, not been able to memories the obvious answers to the obvious questions asked in the endless class tests, being bullied for not performing financially as well compared to people with similar background in life.

Let’s see what's the DNA of this bullying business and has it any significance in the light of the fact that learning and absorption capacity of a person is mostly independent of their childhood performance due to several unknown and very unpredictable environmental influences and opportunities available in one's life as they grow compared to limited and intentionally restricted options available/ provided to them in early childhood. Has it any significance at all in today’s rapidly changing world with emerging technologies, accessible and free resources of knowledge and why this business of bullying should fade away real fast, at least why its high time for the same to happen. Let’s see why the boundaries of education system should and will disappear very soon.

If you will closely observe the peripheral resources of learning available today while tracing the chronological changes in streams of information dissemination and future possibilities of technological infusion in informal learning process which all cumulatively presenting a new and broadened learning process, this informal learning process is getting so inclusive, so fast every passing day that it will make your head spin. These informal learning tools are mostly ignored in education process at present. 

Let’s look at the parallel growth in education system, which apparently seems way behind the real life real time pace of development when it comes to learning process - internet, smart phone, social networking just couple of examples though, you know! Unfortunately none of these wonderful tools of information exchange and knowledge transfer which have become core of everyone's everyday life are in the priority list of education system at all, and neither going to be an area of interest or exploration very soon for them, rather they will make sure that this plethora of life changing tools shouldn't get into the education system in the name of discipline, in the light of childhood vulnerability! Of course you need some kind of regulatory mechanism.

If we go with the current ideology of educational evaluation system then people in their life should be arranged in the exact same order of professional success as they were arranged in their school or graduation class, as evaluated based on their marks gained, based on their knowledge of the curriculum, but take a look around and you will realize it’s not true, it can’t be and it will never be true. The current evaluation system doesn't acknowledge the real potential of individual; they just care about the part of potential confined to their established boundary of curriculum, including peripheral limited activities like cultural and sports participation, ignoring the future environmental influences especially technological ones.

Present educational evaluation system seems somewhat flawed and bit dangerous as well; this whole process of establishing and certifying who has what capacity at the very early stage of individual's growth period while the growth of a person is directly proportional to what kind of opportunities he or she received in post schooling or later part of educational or personal life. Imagine a hypothetical situation in which an institution firmly establishes this fact that some particulate child has capacity of a D+ grade performance in primary or high school level, imagine if he or she could not get through selection process of a good school at secondary or higher secondary level and hence could not further got enrolled in a good university because of that D+ grade. Now imagine, what if that same child becomes extremely knowledgeable and efficient few years down the line after completing primary or high school education possibly due to new environmental influences, due to the latest learning tools and vast knowledge resources available today, what if he or she is the first one to grasped and master the latest tools of learning and research, what if that D+ grade student is technically the soundest candidate for higher secondary or university entrance but couldn't secure admission just because some institution had long back established and authoritatively certified the poor grade of student based on some skewed benchmark. A dream might get devastated due to early certification of knowledge on a discreet fragmented evolution system often within a limited bandwidth of educational framework. Couple of questions for you to answer - Can you justify assessment establishing poor performance of a geek child in cultural and sports activities or visa-versa? Can you justify assessment based on questions asked in class tests, answers of which you can find out in less than 20 seconds in Google? Can you justify bullying of that poor student who does not know the one word answer of that textbook question, when he or she can find out a precise and elaborate answer of that question within seconds while learning much more in the process only if you could have allowed him or her to use their smart phone? What’s the validity of asking such questions today and what is the validity of educational assessment based on such questions today at all? Don’t you think it’s the right time for the education system to introspect?

Mutation of educationsystem due to technological infusion is an emerging area of exploration which educational strategists should focus on. Learning is a constant process, and with the exponentially growing free and accessible resources of knowledge, learning process is bound to be an exponential phenomenon. So, if you are a parent or a teacher or educationalist think twice before bullying your child or student or to those supposedly less knowledgeable than you today, because they are going to come back tomorrow loaded with knowledge and laced with such innovative tools of precise knowledge acquisition which we can’t even imagine today. Today's comparison of two kids has no realistic relation or reflection at all with the actual success in their life in future when they will be at the highly accentuated curve of learning, the only deciding factor would be who shows how much interest in the emerging technologies and sources of learning, who familiarize himself or herself how much and who absorbs how fast and all of this is totally independent from the performance and potential assessment of today.

It’s not just the fault of education system which apparently fails to timely acknowledge the impact and possibility of technological development which has and will always outpace the development of educational system. Education system has its own constraints which we should also acknowledge, which is that they need to thoroughly investigate, assess and validate everything before letting it into the curriculum of education system, they can’t really merge the trending knowledge into the mainstream education without thorough understanding of the trend and its possible impact on the students, young or mature, and by the time they understand the trend and tame it down to the extent to be eligible for the mainstream educational inclusion, that trend becomes outdated, hence this constantly lagging process of chasing new knowledge and hence this outdated dissipation of knowledge through structured education system. And since the benchmark of assessment is outdated, there is grossly wrong process of assessment of students as well. For another example, no matter what and how extensively that particular student knows about some area of his or her interest, it is not going to help him get the good grade unless that knowledge is about one of the couple of subjects specified in the curriculum. That student is supposed to stick to the curriculum diet imposed on them by the institution; apparently every other knowledge is irrelevant in the eyes of education system at least that’s what they think is important to secure a good job at the end of the day. A fundamentally wrong notion of educational performance at least a highly irrelevant model of evaluation of talent in today's world when you are not just solely dependent on schools and universities for your learning, while you are learning wherever you are, whenever you want, in that very moment, learning on your mere wish. In spite of all this free and immense knowledge the existence of educators can’t be negated, what is needed is to have a holistic approach towards talent evaluation and fast inclusion of technological shifts.

This is "Learning on the go" generation and we can’t confine it in the predefined boundary of education, we can’t impose on others what they should learn, rather they should decide what they want to learn and it’s our responsibility to provide them the customized curriculum of their individual interest, education system will increasingly have to be much more flexible, it’s inevitable and its need of the hour. What needs to be done here is that to create a macro framework for the education system, flexible, fast and inclusive enough to quickly notice, sanitize and accommodate the changes occurring in technological field and otherwise, into the mainstream education system. A framework which makes the educational system sensible and smart enough to allow unlocking the true potential of unique individuals rather than mass production.

A to Z Satellitexted : Urban Planning Text

Satellite view or architecture and planning resembling English alphabet 

Its took one bright idea, couple of days, several dozen cities, hundreds of Google Earth rotation and thousands of zoom-in-out to compile this piece of work for you. Enjoy Satellitexted* urbanism!    

*Satellitexted : Building plan in satellite view resembling Alphabet!

Why such vast gap exists in statistical interpretation of a single fact?

Statistics considers raw data while people tend to value associated sentiments.

If you are going for a primary survey with a standard template of closed ended questionnaires or some kind of table to be filled with numbers you might not be doing real justice to the survey. You might have a reasonable amount of data at end of the day to conclude your assignment or research, but you won’t be able to do the realistic assessment of the situation. You might fulfill the acceptable standards of data gathering; you might even publish the result and can even bag an award or two, but if the very people who got surveyed are not being able to relate to the statistical conclusion, or if they do not validate it, all the efforts of data collection and analysis goes to vain.

You will be surprised to realize that still at many instances the situation shown of paper and the actual situation experienced by the population is drastically different, though data for situation analysis was gathered from the same population or community. Then why this vast gap of interpreted and locally experienced situation exists? Why this constant apparent difference of opinion between government’s point of view and what media and NGO’s showcase about the city, region or community etc. There are few possible reasons, first is that statistics is very flexible domain, though outcome seems very impactful there is enough scope to mould or influence the direction of outcome, still staying within legally of intellectually acceptable limit. The kind of data you select to gather, variety of assumptions you take into consideration, mode and tool of statistical analysis you choose to go with, time span considered for analysis, selection and heterogeneity of sample itself, there are so many such variables that one can interpret and influence the outcome in any possible direction depending on the purpose or intention. Larger the data set, greater the flexibility of interpretation.

Government being a powerful entity with ample manpower and resources has generally upper hand when it comes to data collection and interpretation and usually less probability of misrepresentation, but again it depends on what they want to prove or convey. Media and NGO who generally lack enough data due to manpower constraint to prove a fact applicable to a larger domain generally tend to rely on emotional values attached to the subject or region and sentiments of population or communities to prove their point. They generally choose small set of data though having high perceived or emotional value and exploit the associated sentiments. On one hand there is ample scope of playing with data and on the other hand equally or more or less scope to play with people’s emotions and sentiments but ultimately both leads to distortion of fact. And this show of constant blame and justification goes on and on. Actual fact seems to lose the significance while this argument is on, later no one really bothers to reach to the actual fact.

Unless statistics as a knowledge stream would device a method and make it a mandate to consider or quantify and incorporate the emotional and sentimental values attached to the subject of research and aspirations of communities to the extent possible along with some kind of post analytic appraisal and indigenous validation method, data representation would remain deceptive and at the mercy of decision making individuals or groups. Meanwhile we as a layman can mitigate this doubt of data misrepresentation by keeping a questioning, skeptical or neutral attitude towards impactful data being presented day to day from both government end as well as media and social welfare representative’s end, without being panicked, without arriving at immediate conclusion, cross verifying the fact from different sources, applying our own head and intuition, knowing and reminding them that their job is to inform us not to instigate or incite us. You are capable enough to judge yourself; all you need is a fair amount of fair data and statistics or simply a fair representation.

By : Anoop Jha

Top Statistic Infographic & Data visualisation resources

Some of the best Infographic Resources for Urban Planning and otherwise

http://www.good.is/infographics

http://dailyinfographic.com/

http://visual.ly/

http://flowingdata.com/

http://www.coolinfographics.com/

http://www.dailystatistic.com/category/infographics/

http://pinterest.com/joshhinds/info-graphics-and-data-vis/

http://sixrevisions.com/graphics-design/40-useful-and-creative-infographics/

Municipal Finance in India : Municipal Tax Revenue sources

Municipal Revenue generation through Taxation in India

“Local Self Government becomes meaningless in the absence of financial autonomy. It enjoys the power of imposition of local taxes. The municipal bodies must have a wider scope of collection of revenues”

(Source: UIDSSMT)


ULBs have invented many channels and instruments of revenue generation in course of time due to urgency of handling growth, some of the tax sources both conventional and non-conventional, are mentioned below.

TAXES/FEES

CONVENTIONAL MUNICIPAL REVENUE SOURCES

Composite Property Tax

Water Charges

Sewerage Charges

Conservancy Charges

Building Permit Fee

Development Charges

Trade Licensing Fee

Advertisement Tax

Shop Room Rent

OTHER GENERAL MUNICIPAL REVENUE SOURCES

House Tax 

Show Tax  

Building Plan Fee

Tax on the consumption of Electricity    

Sale of liquor     

Cess on the transfer of immovable property   

License for Dangerous and Offensive trades

Rates are varied in respective ULBs

Rehari License Fee

Tehbazari Tax

Slaughter House Fee

Cattle Pound Fees

Birth & Death Certificate Fee

Copying Fee

Tree Cutting Fee

Library Membership

Ground Tax

Vehicle License Fee

Death & Birth Reg./ Late Fee

Forest /Garden Income

Dog License Fee 

Animal Tax (Cattle Pound)

Trade License Fee

Tax on advertisement other than advertisement published in the newspaper.

NON-CONVENTIONAL MUNICIPAL REVENUE SOURCES

Vacant Land Tax

Service Taxes

Surcharge on Land Registration Duty

Water Supply Donations

Water Supply Connection Charges

Water Benefit Tax

Water Betterment Charges

Sewerage Donations

Sewerage Connection Charges

Sewerage Benefit Tax

Sewerage Betterment Charges

Bulk Garbage Collection Charges

Betterment Charges

External Betterment Charges

Open Space Contribution

Impact fee

Transferable Development Right

Premium FSI

Sub-division charges

Planning Permission Betterment

Road Cutting Charges

Street Tax

Frontage Tax

Cess on Infrastructure

Motor Vehicle Tax/Surcharge

Tax on Petrol and Diesel

Business License Fee

Hoarding Charges,

Advertisement Placement Fees,

Cable TV Fee,

TV Advertisement Charges

Royalty on Auctions

INNOVATIVE /UNIQUE MUNICIPAL REVENUE SOURCES

General Obligation Bond/ Municipal Bond

Awarding of development rights,

Town planning schemes (TPS)

Plot/layout readjustment

Additional FSI/FAR

Goodwill auctions

Bank linkages (for Urban Poor)

Capital-based property tax system

Land banking

Transferable development rights (TDR)

Special Education tax

Pilgrim

Octroi

Special and General Sanitation

Shows

Toll on Vehicles,

Timber

Terminal

Menial Domestic Servants

Artisans

Entertainment Tax

SOME OF THE UNIQUE REVENUE STREAMS (THROUGH FEES/ CHARGES) OF MUNICIPALITIES ACROSS MAJOR STATES IN INDIA

Registration Fee

Mutation Fee

Market Fee 

Trade License Fee

Compounding Fee

Slaughter House Fee

License Fee

Betterment / Development Fee

Fire Brigade

Public Health

Swimming Bath Fee,

Stock Registration

Cattle Pound Fee

Teh Bazari Fee

Pilgrim

Scavenging

Prevention of Food Adulteration Fee

Dangerous and Offensive Trade License Fee

Animal Registration Fee

Compounding Fee

Warrant Fee

Bus Stand Fee

Copying Fee

Cart Stand Fee,

Encroachment Fee

Fees from burning ghats

Birth and Death Registration Fee

Sources:

cgg.gov.in/  (http://bit.ly/Jb35C5),

UIDSSMT / http://bit.ly/IkNKk0,

RBI / http://bit.ly/J8i70d

Need for Dining Masterplan of city: most of us will agree!

By - Anoop Jha

From Hmmm to Ymmm 

When you feel hungry, when you don’t want to have homemade food, when you are tiered of cooking, when you are looking forward to a wonderful weekend break or planning for a New Year party or simply want to hangout out with your friends and family, you immediately do either one or more of the following things –

·  You turn to your location based smart phone to find nearest restaurant

·    You google a happening restaurant in your city, resulting lots of confusing results with too much of hassle to filter information

·   You open an online map with innumerous popped up restaurant locations

·    You go to food critic site and find too much about taste and too little about route, location, public transport connection and parking facilities.  

·     You turn to visitors reviews only to find out there are two distinct groups one “for” and other “against” the restaurant sharing their biased opinions, leaving you without any clue what to do.

And in the course of exploring the dining possibilities you are really getting late and getting frustrated while your wife or girlfriend is getting disappointed. What’s the solution?

Structured & Informative dining masterplan

Leaving taste and ambiance reviews to food critics and users, someone has to take the responsibility to create a comprehensive dining map of the city to avoid all this confusion providing relevant details for resident of the city and tourists as well, since intracity leisure trips comprises of a major chunk or travel numbers. Responsibility of providing timely and accurate information related to city amenities whether dining, leisure or other should technically lie with city for providing a hassle free transport and living experience for city population and urban planners can definitely contribute in consolidating and presenting a comprehensive “Dining Masterplan of city”.